Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty in engineering projects

In this paper we describe how an evidential-reasoner can be used as a component of risk assessment of engineering projects using a direct way of reasoning. Guan & Bell (1991) introduced this method by using the mass functions to express rule strengths. Mass functions are also used to express data strengths. The data and rule strengths are combined to get a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of our reasoning process. Then we combine the prior mass and the evidence from the different rules; i.e., the second half of the reasoning process. Finally, belief intervals are calculated to help in identifying the risks. We apply our evidential-reasoner on an engineering project and the results demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of this system in this environment.

Risk assessment of E-Commerce projects using evidential reasoning

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risks in E-Commerce (EC) projects. Competitive software businesses have the critical task of assessing the risk in the software system development life cycle. This can be conducted on the basis of conventional probabilities, but limited appropriate information is available and so a complete set of probabilities is not available. In such problems, where the analysis is highly subjective and related to vague, incomplete, uncertain or inexact information, the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence offers a potential advantage. We use a direct way of reasoning in a single step (i.e., extended DS theory) to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risk in EC projects. This consists of five stages 1) establishing knowledge base and setting rule strengths, 2) collecting evidence and data, 3) determining evidence and rule strength to a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of a single step reasoning process, 4) combining prior mass and different rules; i.e., the second half of the single step reasoning process, 5) finally, evaluating the belief interval for the best support decision of EC project. We test the system by using potential risk factors associated with EC development and the results indicate that the system is promising way of assisting an EC project manager in identifying potential risk factors and the corresponding project risks.

Public Administration, Science and Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the U.K. Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Crisis

The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak in the United Kingdom is regarded as one of the worst public policy crises the British government has experienced during the postwar era. In material terms, it has led to the slaughter of 3.3 million cattle and estimated economic losses of £3.7 billion. In administrative terms, the crisis brought about the dissolution of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. This article examines the istitutional context in which decisions about the scientific evidence on BSE were made. The authors argue that a centralized system in which government agencies control science for government is inherently vulnerable to alliances of experts and interest groups that undermine the credible assessment of public health and safety risks. Specific societal conditions may encourage risk-opportunistic behavior among policy makers that is conducive to delays and inaction until such time as the evidence of a health risk becomes overwhelming.

Getting priorities straight: Risk assessment and decision-making in the improvement of inherited disorders in pedigree dogs

The issue of inherited disorders in pedigree dogs is not a recent phenomenon and reports of suspected genetic defects associated with breeding practices date back to Charles Darwin's time. In recent years, much information on the array of inherited defects has been assimilated and the true extent of the problem has come to light. Historically, the direction of research funding in the field of canine genetic disease has been largely influenced by the potential transferability of findings to human medicine, economic benefit and importance of dogs for working purposes. More recently, the argument for a more canine welfare-orientated approach has been made, targeting research efforts at the alleviation of the most suffering in the greatest number of animals.

Why is housing tenure associated with a lower risk of admission to a nursing or residential home? Wealth, health and the incentive to keep 'my home'

Background Previous research has shown that home ownership is associated with a reduced risk of admission to institutional care. The extent to which this reflects associations between wealth and health, between wealth and ability to buy in care or increased motivation to avoid admission related to policies on charging is unclear. Taking account of the value of the home, as well as housing tenure, may provide some clarification as to the relative importance of these factors.
Aims To analyse the probability of admission to residential and nursing home care according to housing tenure and house value.
Methods Cox regression was used to examine the association between home ownership, house value and risk of care home admissions over 6 years of follow-up among a cohort of 51 619 people aged 65 years or older drawn from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study, a representative sample of approximate to 28% of the population of Northern Ireland.
Results 4% of the cohort (2138) was admitted during follow-up. Homeowners were less likely than those who rented to be admitted to care homes (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.85, after adjusting for age, sex, health, living arrangement and urban/rural differences). There was a strong association between house value/tenure and health with those in the highest valued houses having the lowest odds of less than good health or limiting long-term illness. However, there was no difference in probability of admission according to house value; HRs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.90) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.95), respectively, for the lowest and highest value houses compared with renters.
Conclusions The requirement for people in the UK with capital resources to contribute to their care is a significant disincentive to institutional admission. This may place an additional burden on carers.

A Risky Business: An Examination of Irish Probation Officers Attitudes and Work Practices Regarding Risk Assessment

This article examines recent research on risk assessment and probation practice in Ireland and relates the findings to the ongoing debate regarding risk management practices in probation. The piece discusses current theoretical arguments on the influence of risk in criminal justice and outlines the impact of risk discourse on probation practice in Ireland and England and Wales. Using a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, Irish probation officers’ attitudes are examined in order to highlight key issues facing probation officers when making risk decisions. These findings are compared and contrasted to other research results from England and Wales. All the conclusions identify both positive and negative consequences of adopting risk tools and point to the continued salience of clinical judgment over actuarial methods of risk assessment. It is argued that the research highlights the role of ‘resistance’ by criminal justice professionals in mediating the effects of the ‘new penology’ at the level of implementation. The idea of resistance holds particular relevance for probation practice in Ireland where professional discretion is maintained within the National Standards framework. Despite this, to date there has been an uncritical approach taken to risk assessment which may ignore the dangers of risk inflation/deflation and the need to take into account local factors in assessing risk of reoffending

Risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in agricultural soils and maize tissues from selected districts in Tanzania

A field survey was conducted to investigate the contamination of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) arsenic (As), lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), and nickel (Ni) in Tanzanian agricultural soils and to evaluate their uptake and translocation in maize as proxy to the safety of maize used for human and animal consumption. Soils and maize tissues were sampled from 40 farms in Tanzania and analyzed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry in the United Kingdom. The results showed high levels of PTEs in both soils and maize tissues above the recommended limits. Nickel levels of up to 34.4 and 56.9mgkg(-1) respectively were found in some maize shoots and grains from several districts. Also, high Pb levels >0.2mgkg(-1) were found in some grains. The grains and shoots with high levels of Ni and Pb are unfit for human and animal consumption. Concentrations of individual elements in maize tissues and soils did not correlate and showed differences in uptake and translocation. However, Ni showed a more efficient transfer from soils to shoots than As, Pb and Cr. Transfer of Cr and Ni from shoots to grains was higher than other elements, implying that whatever amount is assimilated in maize shoots is efficiently mobilized and transferred to grains. Thus, the study recommended to the public to stop consuming and feeding their animals maize with high levels of PTEs for their safety.